0x3D3Cd093eF99D9d4E48F94F411A035C98f957892-1753709074590
0x3d3cd093ef99d9d4e48f94f411a035c98f957892
- Realised P&L
- $-850.41
- Volume
- $12.6k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $151.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the ND-AL House seat? · Yes | 0.961 | 0.950 | $49.37 | −$0.60 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MO-01 House seat? · Yes | 0.985 | 0.981 | $49.02 | −$0.23 |
| Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.963 | 0.968 | $47.84 | +$0.22 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.986 | 0.995 | $4.28 | +$0.04 |
| Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.940 | 0.970 | $1.01 | +$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$615.04at 0.360Pirates vs. Cubs
- +$577.92at 0.440Mariners vs. Rays
- +$499.80at 0.400Blue Jays vs. Pirates
- +$186.20at 0.510Rays vs. Yankees
- +$1.30at 0.979Megaquake by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-02 07:05 | Will Bournemouth win on 2025-12-02? | BUY | 0.45 | $432.00 |
| 09-03 12:43 | Mariners vs. Rays | BUY | 0.44 | $454.08 |
| 08-20 12:25 | Blue Jays vs. Pirates | BUY | 0.4 | $333.20 |
| 08-05 07:31 | Twins vs. Tigers | BUY | 0.56 | $291.76 |
| 07-31 12:10 | Rays vs. Yankees | BUY | 0.51 | $193.80 |