0x3cdf6d784c8bfa0fcc8bfe8eb1f743474bcea087
0x3cdf6d784c8bfa0fcc8bfe8eb1f743474bcea087
- Realised P&L
- $0.80
- Volume
- $25.86
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.84
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.740 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.315 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$0.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.00at 0.339Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$0.50at 0.671Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?
- +$0.46at 0.689Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention?
- +$0.36at 0.740Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$0.29at 0.779Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 22:14 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 00:58 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 03:17 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 18:55 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 10:46 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 13:54 | Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 13:52 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 04:27 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-11 18:01 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 07:58 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 22:55 | Will Trump say "Afford" or "Affordable" or "Affordability" during RNC Convention? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 14:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |