parfenenokbb
0x3cad72347b28882e3b7b559046f10f694062425a
- Realised P&L
- $-157.22
- Volume
- $50.9k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $411.95
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.056 | $411.95 | −$668.02 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Switzerland to score first vs. Argentina? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.99 |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 3-9? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.039US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$126.50at 0.280US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$119.00at 0.283Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?
- +$63.12at 0.440Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$48.26at 0.677Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 0.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 03:39 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.0316442611 | $90.45 |
| 09-04 03:39 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.0332184024 | $94.95 |
| 08-08 01:14 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.0209999996 | $50.00 |
| 08-07 12:02 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.13686149 | $50.00 |
| 08-07 11:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.045 | $50.00 |
| 08-07 11:46 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 3-9? | BUY | 0.1199999981 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 17:24 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0379999996 | $100.00 |
| 07-12 02:54 | Switzerland to score first vs. Argentina? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 07-12 02:48 | Switzerland to score first vs. Argentina? | BUY | 0.001 | $9.00 |
| 07-12 02:47 | Switzerland to score first vs. Argentina? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 07-07 17:28 | Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 0.5 | BUY | 0.6699999993 | $100.00 |
| 07-05 11:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5? | SELL | 0.108 | $46.30 |
| 07-03 11:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5? | BUY | 0.1179999981 | $50.00 |
| 07-03 11:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 June 29-July 5? | BUY | 0.11 | $0.55 |
| 05-09 03:49 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.0889999985 | $50.00 |