SM4RTAsS
0x3ca6ade637353054d0e3f3cc4d0d72d26837a262
- Realised P&L
- $-3.4k
- Volume
- $54.9k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $111.46
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration80.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? · Yes | 0.193 | 0.044 | $111.46 | −$376.67 |
| Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$140.00 |
| Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? · Yes | 0.344 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$174.74 |
| Will PVV win 33 or more seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$91.63 |
| Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? · No | 0.045 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$174.26 |
| Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? · No | 0.389 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$389.00 |
| Will PVV win 30–32 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$628.72 |
| Will Elon register the America Party in July? · Yes | 0.272 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.5k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.611Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
- +$339.54at 0.183Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
- +$-0.00at 0.400Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
- +$-51.36at 0.027Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-29 12:33 | Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 03-29 12:13 | Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $73.89 |
| 03-29 12:12 | Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $35.68 |
| 03-22 18:17 | Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $93.57 |
| 03-22 17:40 | Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $34.00 |
| 03-20 15:49 | Dutch House of Representatives dissolved in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $47.36 |
| 01-09 20:05 | Will CDA be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | SELL | 0.0159432678 | $72.74 |
| 12-14 14:14 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.037 | $12.73 |
| 12-14 14:12 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.027947855 | $17.50 |
| 12-13 15:52 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.0339698964 | $7.28 |
| 12-08 22:43 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.0715667526 | $33.04 |
| 12-07 20:59 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.0723918854 | $27.08 |
| 12-05 11:55 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.0487552469 | $15.94 |
| 12-05 00:11 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.0505952381 | $4.25 |
| 12-05 00:04 | Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? | BUY | 0.0402519274 | $17.65 |