ShawnReeves1286
0x3ca32afb4bd1f831799edfeae02642189f849546
- Realised P&L
- $-384.10
- Volume
- $171.3k
- Markets traded
- 172
- Open portfolio
- $724.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded172
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.200 | 0.850 | $316.01 | +$241.61 |
| Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? · No | 0.730 | 1.000 | $170.00 | +$45.90 |
| Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.270 | $123.66 | +$9.16 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.705 | $109.98 | −$2.34 |
| Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.051 | $5.20 | −$9.95 |
| Will Progressive Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$0.22 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? · No | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$395.76at 0.110Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$330.03at 0.280Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?
- +$281.78at 0.270Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?
- +$237.78at 0.165Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?
- +$215.16at 0.780Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 15:58 | Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.40 |
| 04-21 02:47 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.206 | $263.68 |
| 04-13 18:02 | US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.766 | $713.91 |
| 04-12 20:59 | Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.69 | $60.03 |
| 04-11 18:36 | Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.86 | $375.82 |
| 04-11 10:10 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $31.98 |
| 04-10 03:26 | Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.87 | $380.19 |
| 04-10 00:13 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $197.60 |
| 04-09 22:28 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | SELL | 0.829 | $312.53 |
| 04-09 13:48 | Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.29 | $126.73 |
| 04-09 13:37 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $29.60 |
| 04-09 13:36 | Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $298.22 |
| 04-08 20:33 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | BUY | 0.837 | $315.55 |
| 04-08 20:24 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $330.40 |
| 04-08 20:19 | Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.3 | $131.10 |