infinitevanilla
0x3c9a09d3a64bd00b2d1807104ab146c5395f6d6a
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $97.2k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.054 | $1.3k | +$276.32 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? · Yes | 0.041 | 0.045 | $1.1k | +$90.95 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$70.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$190.27at 0.892Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
- +$173.90at 0.635Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
- +$118.24at 0.540US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$1.04at 0.920Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?
- +$-1.76at 0.595Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:42 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.0411707978 | $977.71 |
| 05-04 20:18 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0433696792 | $872.53 |
| 05-04 20:18 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0498561574 | $144.76 |
| 05-04 19:57 | Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? | SELL | 0.005 | $2.95 |
| 04-08 16:57 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY | 0.1 | $70.00 |
| 04-08 16:55 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.65 | $17.56 |
| 04-08 16:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.6105923469 | $51.54 |
| 04-08 00:20 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7399999911 | $20.00 |
| 04-08 00:17 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.002 | $21.50 |
| 04-07 23:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.7699999892 | $65.00 |
| 04-07 23:28 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL | 0.5785159638 | $63.24 |
| 04-07 23:27 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY | 0.5946108479 | $65.00 |
| 04-07 23:24 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.985 | $60.99 |
| 04-07 23:18 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | BUY | 0.9690976083 | $60.00 |
| 04-07 23:10 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.089274509 | $63.77 |