0x3c820fd0b0cbb220502964e2f985a501bc377edb
0x3c820fd0b0cbb220502964e2f985a501bc377edb
- Realised P&L
- $0.38
- Volume
- $179.44
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $8.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 24? · No | 0.630 | 0.860 | $2.01 | +$0.54 |
| Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.620 | 0.650 | $1.59 | +$0.07 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? · No | 0.720 | 0.870 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.550 | 0.590 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.740 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 MedTech revenue be above $8.8B? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.455 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.160 | $0.46 | −$0.54 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.51at 0.258Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$3.34at 0.319Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in August?
- +$1.92at 0.432Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September?
- +$1.75at 0.470Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.410Will Costco say "Dividend" during earnings call?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 14:17 | Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 03:48 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 Innovative Medicine revenue be above $17.4B? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:34 | Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q3 MedTech revenue be above $8.8B? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 21:23 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 09:42 | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $156 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 01:40 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,140 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 04:59 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 8? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 12:54 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 8? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 03:02 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 15:42 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 07:40 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $59 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 23:01 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 13:01 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 12:59 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $2.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 00:18 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |