Stillwaterdas
0x3c78946378918af3ed12f684e14d99fd1e2a9dac
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $6.3k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $17.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar46.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration97.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State vs. Louisville · Florida State | 0.320 | 0.385 | $7.22 | +$1.22 |
| Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026? · No | 0.998 | 1.000 | $3.00 | +$0.00 |
| South Florida vs. UTSA · South Florida | 0.300 | 0.285 | $2.85 | −$0.15 |
| Iowa State vs. BYU · Iowa State | 0.230 | 0.215 | $2.15 | −$0.15 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.404 | 0.159 | $1.57 | −$2.43 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.032 | $0.57 | −$1.43 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? · No | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.00 |
| UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Boise State Broncos · Boise State Broncos | 0.830 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons · Pistons | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage · Atreides | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.500Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
- +$57.62at 0.407Nuggets vs. Spurs
- +$3.60at 0.460Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 8 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.790Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.79at 0.387Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04 10:17 | Iowa State vs. BYU | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 10-04 10:17 | Florida State vs. Louisville | BUY | 0.32 | $3.00 |
| 10-04 10:16 | Florida State vs. Louisville | BUY | 0.32 | $3.00 |
| 10-04 10:16 | South Florida vs. UTSA | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 09-30 12:14 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4039999632 | $4.00 |
| 07-29 10:59 | Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage | BUY | 0.52 | $27.00 |
| 06-11 14:50 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1099999521 | $2.00 |
| 06-11 14:48 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 06-09 12:00 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 8 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999625 | $3.00 |
| 06-09 11:58 | Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.3799999772 | $6.00 |
| 06-09 10:51 | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.789999986 | $9.00 |
| 05-26 00:59 | Knicks vs. Cavaliers | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 06:51 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 17? | BUY | 0.9983344426 | $30.00 |
| 05-16 06:49 | Cavaliers vs. Pistons | BUY | 0.629999988 | $10.00 |
| 04-11 17:53 | Nuggets vs. Spurs | BUY | 0.4 | $38.17 |