aford
0x3c686eeccc04002a681316a6f90c8feaf60cf860
- Realised P&L
- $3.69
- Volume
- $21.9k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $17.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears vs. Falcons: O/U 51.5 · Over | 0.520 | 0.535 | $16.58 | +$0.46 |
| Will Tomáš Rec be the next Mayor of Liberec? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.025 | $0.44 | −$12.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.09at 0.320Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?
- +$10.91at 0.530Timberwolves vs. Warriors
- +$8.70at 0.530Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 21?
- +$5.74at 0.720Hangzhou Open: Jie Cui vs Adolfo Vallejo
- +$4.04at 0.743Solana above $240 on December 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:35 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.60 |
| 01-30 15:30 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999576 | $12.46 |
| 01-30 14:47 | Will Solana reach $150 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.72 |
| 01-30 12:01 | Will Lighter reach $3.50 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $35.76 |
| 12-30 08:52 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $11.93 |
| 12-30 00:33 | US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | BUY | 0.997999929 | $7.11 |
| 12-29 23:39 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999773 | $24.81 |
| 12-29 22:03 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999921 | $27.89 |
| 10-30 17:58 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.31 |
| 10-30 17:50 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.83 |
| 09-29 10:54 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September? | BUY | 0.9989999298 | $13.07 |
| 09-29 09:52 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9889999999 | $16.17 |
| 09-29 00:50 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in September? | BUY | 0.9979999569 | $18.02 |
| 09-28 22:43 | Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.97 |
| 08-30 22:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? | BUY | 0.995999962 | $18.01 |