High.Roller.Hades
0x3c5da51862e35091062c46b0e80b16bec352db78
- Realised P&L
- $-4.7k
- Volume
- $119.0k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $59.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample39 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.578 | 0.780 | $38.84 | +$10.06 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.635 | $19.05 | +$8.85 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? · No | 0.379 | 0.051 | $2.04 | −$13.14 |
| Will Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee? · No | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.20 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? · No | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$319.00at 0.890Cavaliers vs. Wizards
- +$76.10at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
- +$62.95at 0.985Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?
- +$40.00at 0.950Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$8.27at 0.986Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 04:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 09-13 03:16 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.379852 | $7.60 |
| 09-13 03:16 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.379 | $7.58 |
| 08-27 03:33 | Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5763432836 | $15.45 |
| 08-21 15:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 08-15 03:33 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 900m and 920m by August 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $11.20 |
| 08-11 10:44 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 08-06 04:01 | Will Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee? | BUY | 0.31 | $31.00 |
| 07-26 09:33 | Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $10.20 |
| 07-12 05:34 | Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.942 | $18.84 |
| 07-05 14:29 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $43.50 |
| 06-23 02:50 | Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? | BUY | 0.92 | $18.40 |
| 06-16 09:38 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |
| 06-09 07:31 | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.998 | $49.90 |
| 05-24 15:07 | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.983 | $49.15 |