PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

grouched

0x3c443fc04076f90229795c96d4c58ca016d3f66f

Realised P&L
$287.76
Volume
$54.3k
Markets traded
158
Open portfolio
$1.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded158
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No0.6880.695$322.83+$3.43
Kash Patel out by December 31? · No0.4100.825$321.51+$161.51
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2280.203$208.68−$25.14
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.1760.032$38.93−$178.91
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0310.040$37.52+$7.83
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3000.265$26.50−$3.50
Will the Orlando Magic be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes0.0270.021$24.14−$5.77
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0100.006$13.00−$7.40
Will the Orlando Magic make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes0.5800.455$11.38−$3.13
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0200.007$7.50−$12.50
Will the Miami Heat be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes0.0900.060$3.00−$1.50
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? · Yes0.6780.060$1.77−$18.23
Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.2780.000$0.00−$78.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? · No0.1700.000$0.00−$6.80
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET · Up0.0200.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 08:27Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?BUY0.3$15.00
10-30 08:23Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?BUY0.3$15.00
10-30 07:56Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?BUY0.02$20.00
10-30 05:04Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.036$9.00
10-30 05:03Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.72$72.00
09-25 11:36Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.074$10.06
09-25 11:01Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.33$49.50
09-21 23:31Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.064$6.40
09-21 23:31Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?SELL0.241$24.10
09-14 04:29Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.21$10.50
09-09 04:16Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?BUY0.35193$35.19
09-06 18:07Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.51$12.75
09-06 17:54Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?SELL0.88$120.52
09-02 16:36Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.026$5.20
09-02 16:22Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.73$7.30