grouched
0x3c443fc04076f90229795c96d4c58ca016d3f66f
- Realised P&L
- $287.76
- Volume
- $54.3k
- Markets traded
- 158
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded158
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$215.86at 0.111Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$163.89at 0.284Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$109.85at 0.460MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$98.84at 0.341Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$94.07at 0.459Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-30 08:27 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 10-30 08:23 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $15.00 |
| 10-30 07:56 | Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $20.00 |
| 10-30 05:04 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.036 | $9.00 |
| 10-30 05:03 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $72.00 |
| 09-25 11:36 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.074 | $10.06 |
| 09-25 11:01 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.33 | $49.50 |
| 09-21 23:31 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $6.40 |
| 09-21 23:31 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | SELL | 0.241 | $24.10 |
| 09-14 04:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $10.50 |
| 09-09 04:16 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.35193 | $35.19 |
| 09-06 18:07 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.51 | $12.75 |
| 09-06 17:54 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $120.52 |
| 09-02 16:36 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.026 | $5.20 |
| 09-02 16:22 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | BUY | 0.73 | $7.30 |