PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

grouched

0x3c443fc04076f90229795c96d4c58ca016d3f66f

Realised P&L
$323.47
Volume
$52.6k
Markets traded
155
Open portfolio
$923.14

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded155
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration15.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kash Patel out by December 31? · No0.4100.775$302.03+$142.03
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No0.6790.765$278.84+$31.45
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2280.162$165.61$68.21
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.2010.080$79.48$121.89
Will the Orlando Magic be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes0.0270.021$24.14$5.77
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · Yes0.3520.185$18.50$16.69
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0290.025$17.85$2.85
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0100.007$15.00$5.40
Will the Orlando Magic make the 2027 NBA Playoffs? · Yes0.5800.585$14.63+$0.13
Will the Miami Heat be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion? · Yes0.0900.085$4.25$0.25
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? · Yes0.6780.095$2.80$17.20
Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes0.2780.000$0.00$78.09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? · No0.1700.000$0.00$6.80
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET · Up0.0200.000$0.00$1.00
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00$10.79

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 04:29Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.21$10.50
09-09 04:16Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?BUY0.35193$35.19
09-06 18:07Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.51$12.75
09-06 17:54Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?SELL0.88$120.52
09-02 16:36Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.026$5.20
09-02 16:22Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.73$7.30
09-02 16:21Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?BUY0.73$14.60
09-02 16:20Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.44$13.20
09-02 16:20Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.43$10.75
09-01 14:52Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.43$8.60
09-01 06:59Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.169$4.23
08-31 14:10Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.45$9.00
08-31 14:10Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.45$4.50
08-28 21:02Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?BUY0.069$17.25
08-28 15:37Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?BUY0.14$14.00