CosmicDreamer4233
0x3c422eed3ce70243383c4c2a37c0190ee5a1012f
- Realised P&L
- $-10.54
- Volume
- $155.4k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $4.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? · No | 0.880 | 0.665 | $4.34 | −$1.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.50at 0.850Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election?
- +$0.32at 0.958Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28?
- +$0.24at 0.971Will Tim Keller win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election?
- +$0.20at 0.910Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?
- +$0.13at 0.950Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 11:12 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.74 |
| 08-09 00:20 | Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? | BUY | 0.9879999996 | $8.88 |
| 07-22 10:46 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $8.85 |
| 06-07 01:54 | Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? | BUY | 0.9479999846 | $2.47 |
| 06-07 01:54 | Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | SELL | 0.995 | $4.28 |
| 05-14 02:03 | Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.995 | $4.28 |
| 04-09 11:53 | Will Baidu have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.996 | $8.91 |
| 04-09 11:53 | Will Oliver rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? | SELL | 0.998 | $8.90 |
| 03-14 03:03 | Will Oliver rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.92 |
| 02-25 01:26 | Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.995999978 | $8.89 |
| 02-25 01:25 | Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? | SELL | 0.994 | $8.89 |
| 02-09 14:58 | Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.9579999103 | $8.57 |
| 01-30 01:37 | Will Iranian officials visit the White House by January 31? | BUY | 0.9959999048 | $8.54 |
| 01-12 07:44 | Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.9909999992 | $8.46 |
| 12-20 07:13 | Will the price of XRP be between $2.10 and $2.20 on December 21? | BUY | 0.995 | $8.42 |