0x3c324916db44a4a6a17858759b8f3b11e569fd4b
- Realised P&L
- $-10.31
- Volume
- $730.00
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $61.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration78.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.670 | 0.925 | $20.35 | +$5.61 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.790 | 0.915 | $14.64 | +$2.00 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.921 | 0.983 | $7.86 | +$0.50 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.935 | $7.48 | +$0.28 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.274 | 0.075 | $3.00 | −$7.97 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.215 | 0.085 | $2.38 | −$3.63 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes | 0.125 | 0.075 | $1.95 | −$1.30 |
| Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.034 | $1.46 | −$0.69 |
| Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.075 | $1.27 | −$4.15 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.835 | $0.83 | +$0.34 |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.635 | 0.064 | $0.06 | −$0.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.69at 0.615Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$3.71at 0.084Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.86at 0.857Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$0.60at 0.900Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$0.24at 0.910Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 02:09 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.039 | $1.44 |
| 07-04 15:07 | Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.15 |
| 06-28 09:51 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.23 | $1.84 |
| 06-26 07:36 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.20 |
| 06-21 10:00 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.43 |
| 06-18 23:35 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.16 |
| 06-14 01:31 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $2.79 |
| 06-12 01:24 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.948 | $5.69 |
| 06-11 22:29 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.10 |
| 06-08 05:51 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $6.38 |
| 06-05 07:48 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.82 |
| 05-29 11:47 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.67 | $14.74 |
| 05-29 11:47 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $2.64 |
| 05-27 05:21 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 05-23 22:36 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.562 | $5.06 |