0x3C1253E36380805781A71649D138F0ee9D4C7514-1774614679997
0x3c1253e36380805781a71649d138f0ee9d4c7514
- Realised P&L
- $-2.5k
- Volume
- $27.4k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration57.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.296 | 0.065 | $777.78 | −$2.8k |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · No | 0.819 | 0.940 | $344.12 | +$44.12 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.735 | $324.26 | +$24.27 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.222 | 0.163 | $219.29 | −$80.71 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$398.65at 0.630Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$237.66at 0.578US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$30.11at 0.482Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$25.63at 0.796Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?
- +$5.41at 0.948Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-02 19:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999999 | $1.2k |
| 05-27 12:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999999 | $1000.00 |
| 05-26 14:28 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL | 0.015 | $8.96 |
| 05-26 14:28 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $47.37 |
| 04-13 05:45 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.9887848188 | $1.1k |
| 04-12 18:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3486777438 | $500.00 |
| 04-12 18:53 | Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | SELL | 0.999 | $105.40 |
| 04-11 20:48 | Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | BUY | 0.9477670604 | $100.00 |
| 04-11 20:38 | Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | SELL | 0.2986887624 | $910.21 |
| 04-10 09:29 | Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7959897827 | $100.00 |
| 04-09 18:34 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999989 | $200.00 |
| 04-07 19:27 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY | 0.3348928826 | $200.00 |
| 04-07 14:05 | Iran leadership change by June 30? | BUY | 0.3799999992 | $200.00 |
| 04-06 22:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999992 | $200.00 |
| 04-06 21:57 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6799999995 | $300.00 |