PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x3C1253E36380805781A71649D138F0ee9D4C7514-1774614679997

0x3c1253e36380805781a71649d138f0ee9d4c7514

Realised P&L
$-2.5k
Volume
$27.4k
Markets traded
12
Open portfolio
$1.7k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-9.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded12
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration57.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2960.065$777.78$2.8k
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · No0.8190.940$344.12+$44.12
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.6800.735$324.26+$24.27
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2220.163$219.29$80.71

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-02 19:54Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2899999999$1.2k
05-27 12:00Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2399999999$1000.00
05-26 14:28Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?SELL0.015$8.96
05-26 14:28Iran leadership change by June 30?SELL0.09$47.37
04-13 05:45Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?SELL0.9887848188$1.1k
04-12 18:54Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3486777438$500.00
04-12 18:53Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?SELL0.999$105.40
04-11 20:48Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?BUY0.9477670604$100.00
04-11 20:38Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?SELL0.2986887624$910.21
04-10 09:29Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?BUY0.7959897827$100.00
04-09 18:34Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3399999989$200.00
04-07 19:27Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?BUY0.3348928826$200.00
04-07 14:05Iran leadership change by June 30?BUY0.3799999992$200.00
04-06 22:06Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3699999992$200.00
04-06 21:57Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?BUY0.6799999995$300.00