Bear1777
0x3c0ea89c0ca33da570859fe2daa86423c217a5cc
- Realised P&L
- $-620.72
- Volume
- $37.7k
- Markets traded
- 228
- Open portfolio
- $38.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded228
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$192.58at 0.611Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 29?
- +$170.57at 0.425Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 16?
- +$140.05at 0.565Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 27?
- +$123.98at 0.409Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2?
- +$117.84at 0.520Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 20:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 3? | BUY | 0.029 | $33.15 |
| 10-02 19:28 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 3? | BUY | 0.026 | $21.17 |
| 10-02 15:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 2? | BUY | 0.1 | $20.00 |
| 10-02 03:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.1657243496 | $75.04 |
| 10-02 03:28 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 2? | SELL | 0.52 | $0.65 |
| 10-02 01:49 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.083 | $1.25 |
| 10-02 00:39 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.023951614 | $3.55 |
| 10-01 15:13 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.39 | $2.84 |
| 10-01 14:59 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.41 | $3.12 |
| 10-01 14:58 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.41 | $6.24 |
| 10-01 14:45 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.4 | $11.60 |
| 10-01 14:41 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.95 |
| 10-01 14:40 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.05 | $22.70 |
| 10-01 14:40 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.95 |
| 10-01 14:39 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.39 | $1.95 |