0x3C0B3957f80121d9A9908A68ea3761cddfb1A951-1779882321363
0x3c0b3957f80121d9a9908a68ea3761cddfb1a951
- Realised P&L
- $267.56
- Volume
- $9.2k
- Markets traded
- 113
- Open portfolio
- $105.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded113
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.945 | $100.55 | +$67.11 |
| Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 28? · Yes | 0.615 | 1.000 | $4.31 | +$1.66 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 20? · Yes | 0.855 | 1.000 | $1.00 | +$0.15 |
| Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.48 |
| Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on September 19? · Yes | 0.483 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 2? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.46 |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 24? · Yes | 0.849 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.79 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$62.42at 0.294Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on September 23?
- +$20.91at 0.567Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on September 23?
- +$17.89at 0.600Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 24?
- +$16.61at 0.420Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on September 18?
- +$16.08at 0.551Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on September 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-28 13:51 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.9 | $0.03 |
| 09-28 13:39 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28? | SELL | 0.97 | $16.49 |
| 09-28 12:01 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.3162371023 | $10.00 |
| 09-28 11:34 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.18 | $4.32 |
| 09-28 11:31 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.3843506494 | $9.47 |
| 09-28 11:31 | Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.3476821123 | $15.00 |
| 09-28 11:21 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.8241037767 | $30.00 |
| 09-28 07:00 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.8764940209 | $30.00 |
| 09-28 05:00 | Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.6145725979 | $30.00 |
| 09-28 02:32 | Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 28? | BUY | 0.9 | $7.37 |
| 09-27 20:52 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.6852731891 | $30.00 |
| 09-27 19:00 | Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.8686709319 | $30.00 |
| 09-27 18:00 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.9 | $12.14 |
| 09-27 14:21 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.8931116374 | $40.00 |
| 09-27 14:01 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on September 27? | BUY | 0.8299999842 | $40.00 |