kirchobeloto
0x3bf480d466ead6d5a65a8c2315099d8c436626b3
- Realised P&L
- $-12.50
- Volume
- $331.22
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $4.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration68.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.900 | $2.45 | +$0.44 |
| Will JAY-Z release a new song in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.325 | $1.43 | −$0.77 |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.100 | $0.21 | −$0.39 |
| Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.004 | $0.02 | −$0.63 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET · Up | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.10at 0.840Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$0.05at 0.231Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026?
- +$-0.03at 0.190Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?
- +$-0.06at 0.910Obama arrested before 2027?
- +$-0.08at 0.180Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 22:55 | Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $0.85 |
| 05-19 17:03 | Obama arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.901 | $4.50 |
| 05-19 16:57 | Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.70 |
| 05-19 09:06 | Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.60 |
| 05-19 07:38 | Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? | BUY | 0.219 | $1.09 |
| 05-19 07:34 | Will Beyoncé release a new song in 2026? | SELL | 0.151 | $0.76 |
| 05-19 03:49 | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.05 |
| 05-19 01:47 | Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027? | SELL | 0.08 | $0.40 |
| 05-18 23:36 | Another US debt downgrade before 2027? | SELL | 0.73 | $3.65 |
| 05-18 21:48 | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 05-18 21:35 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.95 |
| 05-18 21:27 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | SELL | 0.25 | $0.71 |
| 05-18 21:09 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.74 | $3.70 |
| 05-18 21:00 | Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | SELL | 0.26 | $1.30 |
| 05-18 19:30 | Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.35 |