0x3bcedb75152cc6dff2c3464a3b397af097b7853a
0x3bcedb75152cc6dff2c3464a3b397af097b7853a
- Realised P&L
- $5.17
- Volume
- $335.63
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $4.33
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.395 | $1.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? · No | 0.670 | 0.665 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.225 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · No | 0.740 | 0.670 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.022 | $0.05 | −$0.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.44at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$4.73at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$4.45at 0.540Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 Week of July 20 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 20:25 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 20:17 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:02 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $780 on October 9? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:58 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:53 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 9? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:50 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:49 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399996448 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 11:42 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:42 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2269999662 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:27 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 10:24 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 02:24 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 15:44 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 15:16 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |