PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

mpilb

0x3bc4b91dfae6dec5358776cc0fc7dae7db6f41e4

Realised P&L
$-1.9k
Volume
$163.9k
Markets traded
14
Open portfolio
$249.99

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded14
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample8 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration70.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0300.018$175.00$125.00
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · Yes0.0170.007$74.99$94.99
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No0.7710.000$0.00$2.3k
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes0.0200.000$0.00$200.00
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00$420.00
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes0.4100.000$0.00$410.00
Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? · Yes0.1180.000$0.00$118.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-18 20:14Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.985$2.9k
06-18 20:12Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.048$39.55
06-18 20:12Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.048$68.74
06-18 20:12Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?SELL0.048$63.60
12-09 22:12Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15?BUY0.8$62.00
12-03 09:30MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?BUY0.78$78.00
12-02 14:27MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?BUY0.7559009901$763.46
12-02 14:26MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?BUY0.84$168.00
12-02 14:14Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.047$4.70
12-02 14:11Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.04$4.00
12-02 13:30Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.9498530069$2.5k
11-14 12:45MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?BUY0.900565115$200.00