mpilb
0x3bc4b91dfae6dec5358776cc0fc7dae7db6f41e4
- Realised P&L
- $-1.9k
- Volume
- $163.9k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $249.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.018 | $175.00 | −$125.00 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House · Yes | 0.017 | 0.007 | $74.99 | −$94.99 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.771 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$420.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$410.00 |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 680k+ BTC by December 31? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$118.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$475.28at 0.280MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$393.45at 0.040Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$319.34at 0.047Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$309.25at 0.925MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$216.66at 0.868MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 20:14 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.985 | $2.9k |
| 06-18 20:12 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.048 | $39.55 |
| 06-18 20:12 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.048 | $68.74 |
| 06-18 20:12 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.048 | $63.60 |
| 12-09 22:12 | Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15? | BUY | 0.8 | $62.00 |
| 12-03 09:30 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $78.00 |
| 12-02 14:27 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7559009901 | $763.46 |
| 12-02 14:26 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $168.00 |
| 12-02 14:14 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.047 | $4.70 |
| 12-02 14:11 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.04 | $4.00 |
| 12-02 13:30 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.9498530069 | $2.5k |
| 11-14 12:45 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? | BUY | 0.900565115 | $200.00 |