peakyman
0x3bbc51fe317aba3ffa7fec98f917b648d466a2b1
- Realised P&L
- $-632.85
- Volume
- $158.3k
- Markets traded
- 141
- Open portfolio
- $142.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded141
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.83at 0.210Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?
- +$16.48at 0.090Will US annex any territory in 2026?
- +$11.50at 0.250Will Jean Silva be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
- +$10.79at 0.200Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?
- +$7.16at 0.330Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 15:26 | Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.0429999994 | $2.10 |
| 09-16 15:26 | Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.0434567894 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 15:25 | Will North Korea recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.043 | $3.22 |
| 09-16 15:24 | Will Syria recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $1.78 |
| 09-16 15:22 | Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? | SELL | 0.073 | $3.65 |
| 09-16 15:21 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999928 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 15:21 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $5.00 |
| 09-16 15:21 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.25 |
| 09-13 23:07 | Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.0879999951 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:06 | Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.0674753588 | $1.00 |
| 09-13 23:06 | Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.024 | $0.22 |
| 09-13 23:03 | Will James Comey be arrested before 2027? | SELL | 0.078 | $1.56 |
| 09-13 23:03 | Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.026 | $2.60 |
| 09-13 23:02 | Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.0396475767 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 23:01 | Will One in a Million win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.06401 | $6.40 |