xiujiang
0x3bb0506248f7bfa4a12183c6cfe650ecd781b202
- Realised P&L
- $-9.54
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $13.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September? · No | 0.999 | 0.999 | $12.69 | −$0.01 |
| Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) · Chicago Cubs | 0.460 | 0.455 | $1.14 | −$0.01 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.44 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will "Tron: Ares" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.80 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.18 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.20 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 15? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.38at 0.986Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$1.20at 0.988Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14?
- +$0.95at 0.850Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?
- +$0.78at 0.979Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 15?
- +$0.66at 0.993Will Elon go on Daily Show before April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 13:27 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.70 |
| 09-24 13:25 | Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) | BUY | 0.46 | $1.15 |
| 08-01 11:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.90 |
| 06-08 09:33 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 06-01 10:12 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-23 06:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-13 09:12 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-07 11:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 8? | BUY | 0.999 | $94.00 |
| 05-04 11:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? | BUY | 0.9989999904 | $94.00 |
| 05-04 11:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.80 |
| 04-26 11:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.9847926696 | $93.86 |
| 04-26 11:33 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 27? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.71 |
| 04-26 11:33 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 27? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.88 |
| 04-23 12:46 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 23? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.99 |
| 04-18 08:57 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? | BUY | 0.999 | $97.99 |