liloidich
0x3b9fcbc2ddfd98d9eb694bd99149c565d152ee40
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $12.7k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $215.06
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-16 House seat? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.966 | $55.03 | +$0.88 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-07 House seat? · No | 0.957 | 0.960 | $54.88 | +$0.17 |
| Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.954 | 0.852 | $46.83 | −$5.64 |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.855 | $36.96 | −$4.11 |
| Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? · No | 0.978 | 0.979 | $11.81 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat? · Yes | 0.977 | 0.965 | $9.55 | −$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$473.88at 0.560Pirates vs. Orioles
- +$452.79at 0.570Celtics vs. Knicks
- +$352.98at 0.630Red Sox vs. Orioles
- +$306.51at 0.490Marlins vs. Braves
- +$71.81at 0.570League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 12:00 | Red Sox vs. Orioles | BUY | 0.63 | $601.02 |
| 08-21 10:11 | Cardinals vs. Rays | BUY | 0.48 | $540.00 |
| 08-07 10:18 | Marlins vs. Braves | BUY | 0.49 | $294.49 |
| 05-16 11:46 | Celtics vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.57 | $600.21 |