PolyBot

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Traders

lirio123

0x3b3d4f86900c50deb73f6786c82385f80e25b162

Realised P&L
$-27.5k
Volume
$463.7k
Markets traded
21
Open portfolio
$3.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded21
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration96.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0700.085$3.0k+$529.16
Iran leadership change by September 30? · Yes0.1420.017$117.74$866.91
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Belgium? · Yes0.0220.000$0.00$291.27
Spread: Norway (-1.5) · Norway0.0800.000$0.00$295.26
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? · Yes0.2670.000$0.00$3.2k
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Morocco? · Yes0.0290.000$0.00$497.41
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No0.5140.000$0.00$7.9k
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Argentina? · Yes0.0370.000$0.00$183.40
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Spain? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$296.00
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 England? · Yes0.0130.000$0.00$208.74
Iran leadership change by July 31? · Yes0.0440.000$0.00$1.6k
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 3 Spain? · Yes0.0600.000$0.00$792.00
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? · Yes0.2020.000$0.00$1.3k
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance · Belgium0.2600.000$0.00$2.0k
Spread: England (-1.5) · England0.1300.000$0.00$910.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-26 08:27Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.08$640.00
07-24 20:08Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?SELL0.5726407645$210.32
07-24 15:35Iran leadership change by July 31?SELL0.043$16.44
07-24 15:33Iran leadership change by July 31?BUY0.045$225.00
07-24 15:32Iran leadership change by July 31?BUY0.045$390.01
07-24 15:32Iran leadership change by July 31?BUY0.044917$269.50
07-24 14:15Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.29$8.7k
07-24 14:14Iran leadership change by September 30?BUY0.15$225.00
07-24 10:43Iran leadership change by September 30?BUY0.14$758.04
07-23 19:54Iran leadership change by July 31?BUY0.049$76.42
07-23 18:13Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.82$214.05
07-23 16:59Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?SELL0.89$7.12
07-23 11:48Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?BUY0.86$73.96
07-23 08:22Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?SELL0.994$6.6k
07-23 08:14Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?SELL0.995$5.3k