0x3B260C4fe9e98caC0FdD87b8b790aCad64aA1bC3-1732990401455
0x3b260c4fe9e98cac0fdd87b8b790acad64aa1bc3
- Realised P&L
- $-53.43
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $39.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.875 | $23.10 | −$3.19 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.996 | $16.86 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.19at 0.995Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 13?
- +$0.16at 0.994Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025?
- +$0.15at 0.994Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 22?
- +$0.15at 0.994Will Solana hit $250 in March?
- +$0.14at 0.995Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 20:22 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 17? | BUY | 0.9979999844 | $16.90 |
| 10-13 16:57 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.9954209097 | $26.30 |
| 10-09 11:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.996 | $25.00 |
| 10-06 14:56 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.9986217279 | $13.20 |
| 10-05 12:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 6? | BUY | 0.995 | $16.00 |
| 10-02 08:47 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | BUY | 0.994 | $15.10 |
| 10-02 03:01 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 2? | BUY | 0.9979999647 | $23.00 |
| 09-29 21:30 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? | BUY | 0.9987856653 | $23.30 |
| 09-29 04:24 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.997999925 | $12.00 |
| 09-24 13:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.995 | $22.50 |
| 09-21 06:39 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 23? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.00 |
| 09-17 20:19 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 18? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.70 |
| 09-17 17:43 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999999 | $15.00 |
| 09-12 16:54 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.9969999648 | $16.00 |
| 09-04 22:28 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $17.61 |