Sosalochka
0x3b2156cbbad35eed84f953032e74427a559bd52a
- Realised P&L
- $-40.10
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $63.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)11.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 21? · No | 0.973 | 0.980 | $20.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 September 14-20? · No | 0.975 | 0.978 | $20.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 21? · No | 0.970 | 0.967 | $19.92 | −$0.07 |
| Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections? · No | 0.730 | 0.455 | $1.50 | −$0.90 |
| Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.335 | $0.77 | +$0.01 |
| Will Wild Horse Nine win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards? · No | 0.670 | 0.665 | $0.77 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.67at 0.170Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.81at 0.280Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August?
- +$-0.20at 0.550GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026?
- +$-0.42at 0.580Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
- +$-0.66at 0.245Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 07:53 | GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $2.52 |
| 09-18 04:37 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | SELL | 0.079 | $3.95 |
| 09-18 00:25 | Will Grand Theft Auto VI win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards? | SELL | 0.591 | $24.82 |
| 09-10 18:48 | Will Ismael Burgueño Ruiz win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election? | SELL | 0.6495238095 | $13.64 |
| 09-09 18:48 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $42.02 |
| 09-09 04:07 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $6.46 |
| 08-24 08:34 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $6.67 |
| 08-21 13:56 | GitHub Git Operations critical incident by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $11.00 |
| 08-18 08:10 | Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by September 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $3.54 |
| 08-18 08:10 | Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by September 1, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $3.54 |
| 08-17 09:11 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in August? | SELL | 0.16 | $1.42 |
| 08-13 17:35 | Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999588 | $4.62 |
| 08-12 19:09 | Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | SELL | 0.54 | $9.18 |
| 08-12 11:01 | Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | SELL | 0.55 | $3.04 |
| 08-12 04:43 | Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | SELL | 0.41 | $17.13 |