falaffel3
0x3afe4fb59e5f299cae6acb47a51b955b22fafd59
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $22.4k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $388.31
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.591 | 0.400 | $286.90 | −$136.66 |
| Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? · Yes | 0.123 | 0.550 | $101.40 | +$78.78 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.4k |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? · Yes | 0.667 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.6k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.2kat 0.429Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
- +$1000.00at 0.500Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?
- +$253.74at 0.669Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 20:52 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.4k |
| 10-17 20:50 | Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5905249143 | $423.56 |
| 10-17 20:29 | Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.6597651405 | $505.37 |
| 07-30 14:53 | Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? | BUY | 0.4548344371 | $68.68 |
| 07-29 15:29 | Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? | BUY | 0.3796496579 | $46.06 |
| 07-27 17:29 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7351165786 | $1.1k |
| 07-27 17:19 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7249843058 | $2.0k |
| 07-26 23:03 | Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? | BUY | 0.122711938 | $22.62 |
| 07-26 22:55 | Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31? | BUY | 0.2450728514 | $34.82 |