tamaraaa
0x3af2ba2e1adb553af3f86667fac2c171b5feedbb
- Realised P&L
- $-1.5k
- Volume
- $70.4k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $192.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makina FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.958 | 0.930 | $97.12 | −$2.88 |
| Makina FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.950 | 0.906 | $95.42 | −$4.58 |
| USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.971 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$485.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$64.31at 0.960EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$53.19at 0.964Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 23?
- +$38.25at 0.949Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$32.39at 0.939ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch?
- +$27.79at 0.980Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 09:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $820.00 |
| 07-23 17:50 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 24? | BUY | 0.996 | $819.00 |
| 07-12 00:06 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.00 |
| 07-12 00:06 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.985 | $800.00 |
| 07-12 00:05 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $807.93 |
| 07-03 16:28 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.983 | $795.00 |
| 06-17 15:05 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | SELL | 0.013 | $6.70 |
| 05-30 20:14 | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY | 0.9659343366 | $559.00 |
| 05-28 01:46 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? | BUY | 0.9989999992 | $558.00 |
| 05-24 14:25 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 25? | BUY | 0.9979999989 | $550.00 |
| 05-24 14:24 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY | 0.9769999933 | $100.00 |
| 05-23 01:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? | BUY | 0.9949709621 | $650.00 |
| 05-21 15:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $650.00 |
| 05-19 16:30 | Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.9959999996 | $650.00 |
| 05-15 12:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? | BUY | 0.9924045563 | $500.00 |