srger
0x3ad4c34563977fc8e7fa567215d4e4b5dcb7993e
- Realised P&L
- $-111.64
- Volume
- $9.4k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $667.14
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.660 | 0.955 | $401.09 | +$123.90 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.938 | 0.836 | $250.65 | −$30.75 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.005 | $15.40 | −$152.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$103.32at 0.680Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
- +$14.65at 0.749Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$-2.00at 0.726Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$-14.40at 0.660Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
- +$-29.90at 0.910US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 02:42 | Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | SELL | 0.967 | $83.48 |
| 07-09 08:48 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $168.00 |
| 06-22 07:47 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.741 | $207.48 |
| 05-25 09:02 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.66 | $237.60 |
| 05-24 11:40 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $209.30 |
| 05-20 01:53 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.938 | $234.50 |
| 05-20 01:51 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.938 | $46.90 |
| 04-12 03:25 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.726 | $726.00 |
| 04-01 07:19 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | SELL | 0.34 | $238.00 |
| 03-25 06:48 | Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | BUY | 0.52 | $364.00 |