0x3aa49ffabd5490b23d7bf38da54ce806e3a0f2e1
0x3aa49ffabd5490b23d7bf38da54ce806e3a0f2e1
- Realised P&L
- $6.60
- Volume
- $458.27
- Markets traded
- 112
- Open portfolio
- $7.24
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded112
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.540 | 0.998 | $1.85 | +$0.85 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.785 | 0.993 | $1.26 | +$0.26 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.930 | $1.24 | +$0.24 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.750 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.345 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.250 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.007 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.03at 0.227Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
- +$5.09at 0.288S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$4.61at 0.308Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of August 31 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 09:32 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:48 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7849998783 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:44 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2169999967 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:30 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:24 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 20:23 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 20:22 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:18 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 15:39 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 06:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 20:08 | Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 10:51 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 13:50 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 05:40 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:49 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |