0x3aa49ffabd5490b23d7bf38da54ce806e3a0f2e1
- Realised P&L
- $10.09
- Volume
- $100.76
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $29.00
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 1.000 | $9.09 | +$7.09 |
| Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.450 | 1.000 | $4.44 | +$2.44 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.845 | $2.77 | +$0.77 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 1.000 | $2.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.765 | $2.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.455 | $2.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? · No | 0.700 | 0.665 | $1.90 | −$0.10 |
| Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%? · No | 0.770 | 0.715 | $1.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.365 | $1.33 | −$0.05 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · No | 0.310 | 0.115 | $0.74 | −$1.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.74at 0.420Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.40at 0.590Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.38at 0.540Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 12+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$1.04at 0.660Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
- +$0.92at 0.670Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 00:55 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 16:54 | Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:53 | Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? | BUY | 0.699999755 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:52 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:50 | Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.3099999364 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:49 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:32 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:58 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999284 | $1.38 |
| 08-01 05:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 21:03 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 13:01 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.42 | $1.26 |
| 07-30 17:34 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-30 01:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July? | BUY | 0.6599998949 | $2.01 |