0x3a708388c2233559c0ffd2d11f782e0b8952b69e
0x3a708388c2233559c0ffd2d11f782e0b8952b69e
- Realised P&L
- $3.57
- Volume
- $260.20
- Markets traded
- 63
- Open portfolio
- $4.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded63
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 12 2026? · No | 0.240 | 0.955 | $3.98 | +$2.98 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.135 | $0.22 | −$0.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.62at 0.319S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 11?
- +$2.38at 0.339Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of September 14 2026?
- +$1.86at 0.512Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 17 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.400S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on August 21?
- +$1.83at 0.400Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $192.50 Week of September 7 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 09:52 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 14? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 09:50 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $382.50 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 01:37 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 16:02 | Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 13? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 19:33 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 04:47 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 03:55 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 18:01 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 09:26 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 12:12 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 02:08 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $110 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 18:08 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 02:23 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 17:44 | Will Costco say "Hot Dog" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 21:43 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 24? | BUY | 0.5499998382 | $1.19 |