0x3a5bb1c9bc76c06f0df1d40064b38a27689eae00
0x3a5bb1c9bc76c06f0df1d40064b38a27689eae00
- Realised P&L
- $3.53
- Volume
- $549.10
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $3.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.915 | $2.35 | +$1.35 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.435 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.03at 0.227Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
- +$3.99at 0.341Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$3.72at 0.218Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-17 19:48 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 11:47 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:23 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:33 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 19? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 02:00 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 17:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 09:57 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 16? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 12:01 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 03:39 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:25 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:22 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 19:19 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 11:16 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2019999612 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:16 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 19:15 | Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3389999434 | $1.00 |