Sophiaqd
0x3a58bc86e64ea6316a3e42a65483046547a8612f
- Realised P&L
- $139.92
- Volume
- $22.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $641.94
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.165 | $351.78 | +$74.62 |
| NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.910 | 0.930 | $290.16 | +$6.24 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$78.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$81.25at 0.220Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
- +$36.00at 0.066Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?
- +$18.02at 0.734Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$3.50at 0.818Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$-1.71at 0.865Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 02:57 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $93.69 |
| 07-05 02:41 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $184.41 |
| 07-05 02:22 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | SELL | 0.27 | $160.65 |
| 06-30 08:52 | Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $40.30 |
| 06-30 08:51 | Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $76.05 |
| 06-30 08:14 | Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $83.59 |
| 06-30 08:05 | Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $77.22 |
| 06-16 01:41 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $76.34 |
| 06-16 01:38 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $130.90 |
| 06-16 01:11 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? | BUY | 0.22 | $150.26 |
| 06-15 11:35 | Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? | BUY | 0.13 | $78.00 |
| 04-20 11:12 | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.865 | $370.22 |
| 03-25 08:10 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.818 | $69.99 |
| 03-19 08:15 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.733975 | $733.98 |