roygbiv86
0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $283.3k
- Markets traded
- 2,248
- Open portfolio
- $24.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,248
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.594 | 0.950 | $14.25 | +$5.34 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on September 23? · No | 0.700 | 0.975 | $9.75 | +$2.75 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.040 | $0.87 | −$0.52 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$99.79at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 13?
- +$96.41at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on March 24?
- +$84.64at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 16?
- +$74.84at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 27?
- +$66.46at 0.712Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 21:29 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.96 | $4.80 |
| 09-22 20:13 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.70 |
| 09-22 20:12 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.87 |
| 09-22 20:09 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.05 | $0.30 |
| 09-22 20:06 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.59 | $5.90 |
| 09-22 20:04 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.7 | $7.00 |
| 09-22 20:03 | Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.0640366572 | $5.87 |
| 09-20 21:48 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.78 | $3.90 |
| 09-20 21:16 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 09-20 21:14 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 09-20 21:14 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 09-20 21:12 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.8 | $8.00 |
| 09-20 20:51 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.8 | $16.00 |
| 09-20 20:50 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.81 | $16.20 |
| 09-20 17:14 | Will the lowest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on September 20? | BUY | 0.96 | $107.95 |