roygbiv86
0x3a562dddc3f153e466e98390261f6683744eba60
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $255.7k
- Markets traded
- 2,127
- Open portfolio
- $877.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,127
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on August 5? · No | 0.985 | 0.998 | $875.71 | +$10.97 |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 5? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $1.50 | −$0.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$99.80at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 13?
- +$96.41at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on March 24?
- +$84.66at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 16?
- +$74.85at 0.500Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on July 27?
- +$66.45at 0.712Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 12:26 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on August 5? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 12:26 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 93°F or below on August 5? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.2k |
| 08-03 18:30 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on August 4? | BUY | 0.9693905896 | $51.30 |
| 08-01 18:29 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on August 2? | BUY | 0.982 | $46.10 |
| 08-01 12:31 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.03 |
| 07-31 19:30 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.061 | $0.30 |
| 07-31 19:30 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.061 | $0.49 |
| 07-31 16:37 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.043 | $0.16 |
| 07-31 16:35 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.043 | $0.21 |
| 07-31 16:33 | Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 2? | SELL | 0.99 | $23.17 |
| 07-30 12:36 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.28 |
| 07-30 12:11 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.23 | $0.73 |
| 07-30 12:11 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 07-30 10:18 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.89 | $4.45 |
| 07-30 10:17 | Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 1? | SELL | 0.89 | $4.45 |