NeutralMaker
0x3a470f8c90e921b90544406c74611d6477d56202
- Realised P&L
- $-14.55
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 154
- Open portfolio
- $56.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded154
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on October 9? · No | 0.710 | 0.725 | $14.50 | +$0.30 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9? · No | 0.440 | 0.630 | $13.86 | +$4.18 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9? · Yes | 0.573 | 0.370 | $12.95 | −$7.09 |
| Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on October 9? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.505 | $9.45 | −$1.03 |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on October 9? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.275 | $5.50 | −$0.90 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET · Down | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.45 |
| Solana Up or Down - July 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET · Up | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.93 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.14at 0.136Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
- +$10.59at 0.294Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
- +$2.78at 0.782Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
- +$1.63at 0.830Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
- +$1.54at 0.849Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 11:10 | Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9? | SELL | 0.53 | $9.54 |
| 10-08 10:15 | Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on October 9? | SELL | 0.53 | $2.80 |
| 10-08 04:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 10-04 15:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-24 08:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET | SELL | 0.94 | $4.70 |
| 09-21 20:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-21 19:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-18 15:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-16 20:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-15 14:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-04 14:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 09-04 14:09 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-27 13:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-24 15:24 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |
| 08-24 15:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $4.95 |