fabulouslymystified483
0x3a39627cb1c709e71d441b34a5c313445455fd6a
- Realised P&L
- $-23.65
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $6.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.512 | 0.658 | $1.41 | +$0.31 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.795 | $1.10 | +$0.10 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.610 | 0.615 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? · Yes | 0.931 | 0.895 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? · Yamal | 0.440 | 0.395 | $0.90 | −$0.10 |
| Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? · Yamal | 0.820 | 0.525 | $0.64 | −$0.36 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.247 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.79at 0.720Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-06?
- +$0.43at 0.825Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?
- +$0.35at 0.930Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.32at 0.772Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.09at 0.991US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 12:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9? | BUY | 0.9199995952 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 18:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 18:31 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 9? | SELL | 0.707 | $1.14 |
| 10-08 16:56 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 9? | BUY | 0.6209999839 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 13:13 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:37 | Ballon d'Or 2026: Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:36 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5119998808 | $1.10 |
| 10-08 12:04 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 8? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:04 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.839 | $4.38 |
| 10-08 07:32 | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.9309999711 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 07:58 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.9609999962 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 06:53 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.939999812 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 19:08 | Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 14:04 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8489999771 | $3.00 |
| 10-06 14:03 | Will Faroe Islands win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |