polans
0x3a2c0ae3138e6641e89e576a017841ed6dac2262
- Realised P&L
- $-761.44
- Volume
- $51.1k
- Markets traded
- 1,487
- Open portfolio
- $44.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,487
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration16.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$123.66at 0.382Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
- +$99.36at 0.543Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 2?
- +$76.85at 0.450Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on September 4?
- +$74.66at 0.564Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on August 16?
- +$67.78at 0.822Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.7299999437 | $5.45 |
| 10-01 05:11 | Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 2? | BUY | 0.5899999643 | $5.45 |
| 10-01 04:35 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.99 | $18.17 |
| 10-01 01:12 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on October 1? | BUY | 0.75 | $5.45 |
| 10-01 01:12 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on October 1? | BUY | 0.7233636182 | $5.45 |
| 09-30 23:11 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 1? | BUY | 0.7233636182 | $5.45 |
| 09-30 23:11 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 1? | BUY | 0.8599999053 | $5.45 |
| 09-30 22:14 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.19 | $10.25 |
| 09-30 22:12 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on October 1? | BUY | 0.8099999792 | $5.45 |
| 09-30 22:05 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 1? | SELL | 0.99 | $18.35 |
| 09-30 22:05 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.98 | $18.17 |
| 09-30 22:05 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.98 | $18.17 |
| 09-30 21:12 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.2199999935 | $5.45 |
| 09-30 21:12 | Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on October 1? | BUY | 0.3099999852 | $5.45 |
| 09-30 20:59 | Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 30? | BUY | 0.73 | $4.76 |