0x39f8220aeed92265234e8cf60ba6b8900ce15237
0x39f8220aeed92265234e8cf60ba6b8900ce15237
- Realised P&L
- $8.03
- Volume
- $275.97
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $6.48
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · Yes | 0.277 | 0.464 | $1.67 | +$0.67 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 1.000 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.300 | $1.20 | +$0.20 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.320 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? · No | 0.700 | 0.470 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.190 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.055 | $0.12 | −$0.88 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.62at 0.270Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$3.65at 0.361Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.290Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 04:09 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2769999465 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 20:07 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 12:06 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3589999124 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 04:00 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on October 8? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:56 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:51 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:51 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $78 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 19:51 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 11:51 | Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 03:51 | Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 19:42 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 11:41 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 02:57 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 18:25 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 10:21 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |