0x39e8b58521d49bf621aa1920503a7acf602ed317
0x39e8b58521d49bf621aa1920503a7acf602ed317
- Realised P&L
- $4.89
- Volume
- $357.77
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $12.97
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.670 | $6.38 | +$4.38 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.971 | $2.56 | +$0.56 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.835 | $2.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.380 | $1.81 | −$0.19 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.017 | $0.09 | −$1.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.41at 0.270Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in August 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.72at 0.430Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$2.70at 0.432Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 24 to August 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 05:07 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $332 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 16:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 07:33 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 21:24 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 11:41 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.4 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 03:16 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999328 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 19:15 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 10:54 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 10:51 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.75 |
| 09-15 02:12 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 15? | BUY | 0.4299999807 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 18:12 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-13 07:27 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599998944 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 23:46 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 15:45 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 07:45 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |