stephanie64
0x39df853d39c0a05fb1996ff47df5ae66a2ad056f
- Realised P&L
- $71.88
- Volume
- $11.2k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $20.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.917 | $18.88 | +$1.79 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.315 | $1.84 | −$2.95 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$13.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.14at 0.358Will Victor Wembanyama win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
- +$14.12at 0.610Will "The Brutalist" win Best Film at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?
- +$12.94at 0.540Sweden Parliamentary Election: Örebropartiet Win Seats?
- +$12.12at 0.580Yoon arrested by January 31?
- +$4.04at 0.668Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in Rebounds?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:30 | Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.994 | $6.05 |
| 01-30 15:06 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.32 |
| 01-30 13:14 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.77 |
| 01-30 12:56 | Will Opendoor dip to $1.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.29 |
| 01-30 12:36 | Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $21.10 |
| 12-30 10:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.27 |
| 12-30 01:19 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $3.56 |
| 12-29 23:44 | Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? | BUY | 0.9989999523 | $7.63 |
| 12-29 22:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999689 | $13.37 |
| 12-29 18:51 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.998 | $27.15 |
| 10-31 00:01 | Will Google have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.30 |
| 10-30 22:38 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in October? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.67 |
| 10-30 21:01 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.30 |
| 09-29 10:46 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.85 |
| 09-28 21:48 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.72 |