expectingmore
0x39d3079f0f0725dcf30ed3893617af52671b963d
- Realised P&L
- $3.6k
- Volume
- $31.08M
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.003 | $3.1k | −$5.6k |
| Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.003 | $1.4k | −$4.1k |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.002 | $858.44 | −$5.2k |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $14.83 | −$14.83 |
| Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.001 | $10.68 | −$98.10 |
| Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.002 | $5.02 | −$11.28 |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.001 | $1.45 | −$3.97 |
| Anysphere (Cursor) IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.029 | $0.18 | +$0.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.012Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$1.0kat 0.012Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$1.0kat 0.006Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$603.15at 0.322Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$407.36at 0.013Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 07:53 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.06 |
| 10-22 18:54 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.002098151 | $428.36 |
| 10-22 18:54 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0017385459 | $616.78 |
| 10-19 23:28 | Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.4224975264 | $175.07 |
| 10-15 01:02 | Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.0020024079 | $831.61 |
| 10-15 01:02 | Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.0026598816 | $763.96 |
| 10-15 01:01 | Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.0025049309 | $737.30 |
| 10-15 01:01 | Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.003 | $597.21 |
| 10-15 01:01 | Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.003 | $339.94 |
| 10-15 01:00 | Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.004 | $252.97 |
| 10-02 22:57 | Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $183.10 |
| 09-24 00:25 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0048858127 | $1.53 |
| 09-21 19:24 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.002 | $79.72 |
| 09-19 21:31 | Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $611.50 |
| 09-19 21:30 | Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.003 | $369.37 |