PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

sertum

0x39cbb3def1196e3b8fb640aacd98631bbf004379

Realised P&L
$-4.81
Volume
$171.15
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$26.29

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration62.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? · No0.5300.820$16.40+$5.80
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9650.989$9.88+$0.23
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21? · Yes0.6400.000$0.00−$2.00
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET · Up0.3500.000$0.00−$3.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-03 19:48Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?BUY0.53$10.60
03-01 11:00Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1?BUY0.72$7.20
02-19 23:39Solana Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ETBUY0.98$9.80
02-19 23:32Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?BUY0.974$9.74
02-19 23:24Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?SELL0.13$1.30
02-18 23:51Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?BUY0.965$9.65
02-09 14:27Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?SELL0.986$9.86
01-31 16:20US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?SELL0.24$2.40
01-28 15:11US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?BUY0.17$1.70
01-28 15:10Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged?BUY0.965$9.65
09-20 14:14Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20?BUY0.7599993312$1.00
09-20 02:48Tulsa vs. Oklahoma StateSELL0.14$0.18
09-20 02:46Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21?BUY0.64$2.00
09-20 02:45Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20?BUY0.75$5.00
09-19 21:39Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?BUY0.8649997816$2.00