sertum
0x39cbb3def1196e3b8fb640aacd98631bbf004379
- Realised P&L
- $-4.81
- Volume
- $171.15
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $26.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? · No | 0.530 | 0.820 | $16.40 | +$5.80 |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No | 0.965 | 0.989 | $9.88 | +$0.23 |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Solana Up or Down - February 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET · Up | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.67at 0.750Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20?
- +$0.70at 0.170US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
- +$0.47at 0.680Nationals vs. Mets
- +$0.32at 0.760Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20?
- +$0.31at 0.865Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 19:48 | Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | BUY | 0.53 | $10.60 |
| 03-01 11:00 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? | BUY | 0.72 | $7.20 |
| 02-19 23:39 | Solana Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET | BUY | 0.98 | $9.80 |
| 02-19 23:32 | Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? | BUY | 0.974 | $9.74 |
| 02-19 23:24 | Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | SELL | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 02-18 23:51 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.965 | $9.65 |
| 02-09 14:27 | Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | SELL | 0.986 | $9.86 |
| 01-31 16:20 | US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $2.40 |
| 01-28 15:11 | US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $1.70 |
| 01-28 15:10 | Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? | BUY | 0.965 | $9.65 |
| 09-20 14:14 | Will Hamburger SV win on 2025-09-20? | BUY | 0.7599993312 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 02:48 | Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State | SELL | 0.14 | $0.18 |
| 09-20 02:46 | Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-21? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 02:45 | Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-20? | BUY | 0.75 | $5.00 |
| 09-19 21:39 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.8649997816 | $2.00 |