0x39a688e4dcc0a9c9bba481b1dbb580d6dd641fd2
0x39a688e4dcc0a9c9bba481b1dbb580d6dd641fd2
- Realised P&L
- $3.06
- Volume
- $286.81
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $5.85
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.260 | $2.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of September 21 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.315 | $1.80 | −$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.165 | $1.43 | −$0.57 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.015 | $0.13 | −$1.87 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.370 | 0.021 | $0.11 | −$1.89 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.002 | $0.01 | −$1.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.46at 0.217Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$4.06at 0.330US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$3.88at 0.340US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 22:14 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $174 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 23:57 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 15:24 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 07:13 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 21:19 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 12:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299999868 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 00:15 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 16:14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 05:32 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 09:30 | Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 00:36 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 16:31 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 14 to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 04:35 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 17:30 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 20:31 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |