0x398bcdf9ed3a433d8d7b738a92a1dac864e9be1f
- Realised P&L
- $-9.3k
- Volume
- $215.7k
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.630 | 0.787 | $2.0k | +$408.71 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.479 | 0.564 | $1.1k | +$158.80 |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.043 | $1.0k | −$2.0k |
| Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? · Yes | 0.373 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.1kat 0.318Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
- +$1.0kat 0.532Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$866.67at 0.180Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
- +$691.68at 0.590Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$573.80at 0.654US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 16:30 | Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.3952138234 | $200.00 |
| 08-28 15:26 | Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.3049473684 | $231.76 |
| 08-28 15:19 | Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.2998823529 | $101.96 |
| 08-28 10:32 | Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.3986311021 | $90.64 |
| 08-28 10:30 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.8424724843 | $2.2k |
| 08-25 12:34 | Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? | BUY | 0.1299999985 | $70.00 |
| 08-25 12:34 | Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? | BUY | 0.1299999985 | $70.00 |
| 08-25 12:33 | Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? | BUY | 0.1199999986 | $70.00 |
| 08-05 14:35 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.401 | $36.09 |
| 08-04 14:04 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.2967098329 | $139.17 |
| 08-03 09:45 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.328 | $51.58 |
| 08-03 09:45 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.321 | $64.20 |
| 08-03 06:27 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.324 | $30.07 |
| 08-02 16:07 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.347 | $57.60 |
| 08-02 16:06 | Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal? | BUY | 0.3465449862 | $125.80 |