0x394d28a46db6cf12fda7924fff829f49ba56cc94
- Realised P&L
- $161.61
- Volume
- $12.4k
- Markets traded
- 392
- Open portfolio
- $14.78
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded392
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? · No | 0.799 | 0.964 | $8.34 | +$1.42 |
| Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · No | 0.880 | 0.955 | $3.60 | +$0.28 |
| Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 searched person on Google this year? · No | 0.984 | 0.998 | $2.81 | +$0.04 |
| Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.002 | $0.03 | −$2.44 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$94.21at 0.319Solana Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
- +$74.36at 0.129Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$29.62at 0.363Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
- +$29.28at 0.364Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
- +$27.78at 0.413BNB Up or Down - April 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 21:10 | Will Nvidia say "Enterprise" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.87 |
| 08-21 23:20 | Will Nvidia say "Gaming" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8899999982 | $4.87 |
| 08-21 10:08 | Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30? | BUY | 0.1099999626 | $2.47 |
| 08-18 10:17 | Will Home Depot say "Lumber" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.5899998894 | $2.08 |
| 08-18 06:20 | Will Klarna say "Sweden" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.3899999178 | $1.47 |
| 08-10 21:10 | Will Cava say "Tariff" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.2599999476 | $2.78 |
| 08-08 23:27 | Will Cisco say "Fiscal" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.38 |
| 08-08 14:36 | Will Cisco say "Fiscal" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.77 |
| 08-08 11:20 | Will Cisco say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9889999985 | $4.62 |
| 08-04 12:11 | Will Uber say "Safety" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.64 | $4.71 |
| 08-03 08:49 | Will Palantir say "Government" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.98 | $1.32 |
| 08-01 00:58 | Will Palantir say "Commercial" 10+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.9889999974 | $1.15 |
| 07-31 18:44 | Will Spotify say "Premium" 20+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8499999911 | $4.75 |
| 07-31 17:50 | Will Palantir say "Healthcare" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.5715767149 | $1.33 |
| 07-31 17:45 | Will Palantir say "Healthcare" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.5899996806 | $1.57 |