0x393Ab114FAfE84aA55F24f5FEFa9B3c4D1ac4623-1772347953607
0x393ab114fafe84aa55f24f5fefa9b3c4d1ac4623
- Realised P&L
- $-397.93
- Volume
- $19.3k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $311.02
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration43.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample26 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$80.00at 0.200U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
- +$78.41at 0.389Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$6.71at 0.600US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$6.67at 0.600Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET
- +$4.03at 0.713Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 22:01 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2099999902 | $16.00 |
| 07-15 21:58 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.3077435407 | $30.00 |
| 07-09 20:32 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.369999998 | $100.00 |
| 07-09 20:29 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1879999987 | $100.00 |
| 04-17 00:47 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.2743314466 | $16.89 |
| 04-04 20:08 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.5699999628 | $14.69 |
| 04-03 07:10 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.4899999804 | $5.00 |
| 04-03 07:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 04-02 08:19 | Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 04-02 08:15 | Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? | BUY | 0.1057692219 | $10.00 |
| 04-02 08:14 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? | BUY | 0.2099999861 | $10.00 |
| 03-28 20:33 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.5999999881 | $10.07 |
| 03-24 07:55 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999395 | $5.00 |
| 03-24 07:54 | Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? | BUY | 0.2799999854 | $10.00 |
| 03-24 07:53 | Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | BUY | 0.4299999931 | $10.00 |