0x390d5b55a7bc9b39d02f2695c51a51c41df40103
- Realised P&L
- $2.86
- Volume
- $223.87
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $19.78
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat? · No | 0.910 | 0.984 | $11.30 | +$0.84 |
| Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.980 | $6.15 | +$0.50 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.234 | $2.34 | +$0.15 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.75at 0.222Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
- +$-0.10at 0.510Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes?
- +$-1.35at 0.940Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 09:49 | No one announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.219 | $2.19 |
| 09-16 21:45 | Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat? | SELL | 0.982 | $0.19 |
| 09-09 10:56 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.42 |
| 09-09 10:09 | Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.394 | $4.33 |
| 09-08 10:10 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.15 |
| 09-08 08:20 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.21 |
| 09-08 05:02 | Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.35 |
| 09-08 03:50 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.24 |
| 09-07 09:52 | Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat? | SELL | 0.981 | $0.19 |
| 09-07 06:17 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.48 | $0.18 |
| 09-07 04:45 | Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? | BUY | 0.1789998588 | $1.00 |
| 09-07 01:17 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.5 | $0.61 |
| 09-07 01:10 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.48 | $0.26 |
| 09-07 01:09 | Will AfD win between 35% and 38% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.10 |
| 09-06 23:23 | Will the Democratic Party win the GA-10 House seat? | SELL | 0.983 | $0.21 |