PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

curlman

0x3909f2d46fcc7a50ad576229700f675f16516ebe

Realised P&L
$-8.69
Volume
$91.11
Markets traded
24
Open portfolio
$4.59

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-9.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded24
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample22 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.0% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 25? · No0.7501.000$1.33+$0.33
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21? · Yes0.8600.935$1.09+$0.09
Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell · Kimberly Birrell0.6800.695$1.02+$0.02
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 25? · No0.9941.000$1.01+$0.01
Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? · Yes0.0800.011$0.14−$0.86

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-25 07:57Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETSELL0.93$1.03
09-25 07:57Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETBUY0.9$1.00
09-25 07:56Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETSELL0.62$0.10
09-25 07:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETSELL0.64$1.08
09-25 07:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETBUY0.5399999568$1.00
09-25 07:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETSELL0.49$0.94
09-25 07:55Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ETBUY0.5199999792$1.00
09-25 07:43Solana Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETSELL0.99$1.02
09-25 07:43Solana Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETBUY0.97$1.00
09-25 07:41Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETSELL0.49$1.00
09-25 07:40Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETBUY0.4899998383$1.00
09-25 07:40Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETSELL0.48$1.07
09-25 07:40Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ETBUY0.4499998425$1.00
09-25 07:38Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETBUY0.5199999792$1.00
09-25 07:38Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETSELL0.86$1.07