curlman
0x3909f2d46fcc7a50ad576229700f675f16516ebe
- Realised P&L
- $-8.69
- Volume
- $91.11
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $4.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 25? · No | 0.750 | 1.000 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
| Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.935 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Korea Open: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell · Kimberly Birrell | 0.680 | 0.695 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 25? · No | 0.994 | 1.000 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will John Ternus attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.011 | $0.14 | −$0.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.92at 0.690Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
- +$0.79at 0.565Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
- +$0.62at 0.622Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.46at 0.689Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on September 24?
- +$0.32at 0.757Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on September 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 07:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.93 | $1.03 |
| 09-25 07:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.62 | $0.10 |
| 09-25 07:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.64 | $1.08 |
| 09-25 07:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $0.94 |
| 09-25 07:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:43 | Solana Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $1.02 |
| 09-25 07:43 | Solana Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:41 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | SELL | 0.49 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | SELL | 0.48 | $1.07 |
| 09-25 07:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:38 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | SELL | 0.86 | $1.07 |