PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

friendlyreward

0x39012016232525192d8a625e229f426e46ae9761

Realised P&L
$-6.5k
Volume
$281.5k
Markets traded
5,459
Open portfolio
$24.37

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded5,459
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration37.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration42.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · No0.4800.515$10.30+$0.70
Will Christoffer Öqvist be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland? · Yes0.5500.770$9.64+$2.75
Will Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County? · No0.5500.207$4.14−$6.86
Will Malin Sjölander be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kalmar County? · Yes0.5200.131$0.29−$0.87
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 31? · Yes0.4300.000$0.00−$6.45
Who will win the gold medal in Men's Skateboard Street at X Games New Orleans 2026? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00−$1.80
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on August 15? · No0.5400.000$0.00−$7.92
Will MrBeast say "Cheat" or "Cheater" during his next YouTube video? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00−$5.57
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 15? · Yes0.5300.000$0.00−$4.24
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00−$3.40
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 30? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$3.40
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on July 31? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00−$3.30
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 30? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00−$2.10
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15? · No0.4300.000$0.00−$10.14
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14? · Yes0.6100.000$0.00−$10.66

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-13 15:07Will Team Secret Win EWC 2026 Rainbow Six SiegeSELL0.103$2.06
08-13 14:43Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14?SELL0.35$0.00
08-13 13:58Will Minnesota have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?SELL0.28$4.79
08-13 13:56Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?SELL0.54$10.80
08-13 13:54WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 13?SELL0.67$13.40
08-13 13:51Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?SELL0.22$1.43
08-13 13:48Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August?SELL0.7$4.63
08-13 13:41Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 15?SELL0.45$9.00
08-13 13:36Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 15?SELL0.51$0.04
08-13 13:35Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15?SELL0.42$8.40
08-13 13:32Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14?SELL0.48$3.66
08-13 13:30Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14?SELL0.45726$9.15
08-13 13:26Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?SELL0.56$2.80
08-13 13:25Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14?SELL0.55$0.74
08-13 13:25Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?SELL0.189896$9.49