friendlyreward
0x39012016232525192d8a625e229f426e46ae9761
- Realised P&L
- $-6.5k
- Volume
- $281.5k
- Markets traded
- 5,459
- Open portfolio
- $24.37
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,459
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration37.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.00at 0.450Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on August 14?
- +$11.00at 0.450Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14?
- +$8.54at 0.530Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 15?
- +$8.54at 0.460Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 14?
- +$8.28at 0.150Walmart (WMT) Q2 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 3%-4.5%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 15:07 | Will Team Secret Win EWC 2026 Rainbow Six Siege | SELL | 0.103 | $2.06 |
| 08-13 14:43 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 14? | SELL | 0.35 | $0.00 |
| 08-13 13:58 | Will Minnesota have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? | SELL | 0.28 | $4.79 |
| 08-13 13:56 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14? | SELL | 0.54 | $10.80 |
| 08-13 13:54 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 13? | SELL | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 08-13 13:51 | Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m? | SELL | 0.22 | $1.43 |
| 08-13 13:48 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August? | SELL | 0.7 | $4.63 |
| 08-13 13:41 | Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 15? | SELL | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 08-13 13:36 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 15? | SELL | 0.51 | $0.04 |
| 08-13 13:35 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15? | SELL | 0.42 | $8.40 |
| 08-13 13:32 | Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 14? | SELL | 0.48 | $3.66 |
| 08-13 13:30 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 14? | SELL | 0.45726 | $9.15 |
| 08-13 13:26 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 14? | SELL | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 08-13 13:25 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 14? | SELL | 0.55 | $0.74 |
| 08-13 13:25 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.189896 | $9.49 |