hscadocas
0x38c041c19ab637e67240645997b422cded7053f9
- Realised P&L
- $-3.6k
- Volume
- $208.1k
- Markets traded
- 94
- Open portfolio
- $26.60
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded94
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)14.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.999 | $23.92 | +$11.70 |
| Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.026 | $2.68 | −$15.82 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$71.00 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score · Yes | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
| Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · No | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.606 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.70 |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) · Manchester City FC | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$170.26at 0.417Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?
- +$169.22at 0.800Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
- +$133.73at 0.349Will Trump say "Fake News" during Speech to the Nation?
- +$64.75at 0.542England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score
- +$57.93at 0.590Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 15:28 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.381 | $30.37 |
| 08-23 12:04 | Will Newcastle United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 12:04 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-23? | BUY | 0.5 | $6.00 |
| 08-23 12:03 | Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 08-23 12:02 | Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) | BUY | 0.419999994 | $25.00 |
| 08-23 12:02 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-23? | BUY | 0.6599999976 | $50.00 |
| 07-26 00:35 | Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | SELL | 0.5704942225 | $40.98 |
| 07-21 08:20 | Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.6059999974 | $70.00 |
| 07-19 18:46 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0749999869 | $5.00 |
| 07-19 18:46 | Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.5499999984 | $120.00 |
| 07-18 22:50 | Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | SELL | 0.04 | $0.39 |
| 07-18 22:48 | Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.39 | $3.83 |
| 07-18 22:22 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |
| 07-18 22:18 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1835253169 | $66.00 |
| 07-17 01:37 | Will Trump say "Fraud" or "Fraudulent" during Speech to the Nation? | SELL | 0.9988992713 | $163.13 |