v65y78
0x38b2ca4a077b863b416b3df0b8c794cc88963fb5
- Realised P&L
- $-1.78
- Volume
- $291.22
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $1.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)93.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.530 | $1.63 | −$0.37 |
| Pelicans vs. Timberwolves · Timberwolves | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? · No | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.38 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.89 |
| Spread: Lakers (-8.5) · Wizards | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? · Yes | 0.379 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.82 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.99 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.22 |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.67 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.89 |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.40at 0.612Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$5.90at 0.276Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25?
- +$2.89at 0.340Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?
- +$1.98at 0.457Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
- +$1.29at 0.487Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 12:28 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 11:32 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995219 | $1.24 |
| 07-03 18:03 | Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05? | BUY | 0.309999928 | $2.67 |
| 06-30 15:02 | Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03? | BUY | 0.6499998682 | $1.48 |
| 06-27 16:08 | Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? | BUY | 0.4899999506 | $2.18 |
| 06-22 18:30 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? | BUY | 0.2699999153 | $2.20 |
| 06-21 15:07 | Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? | BUY | 0.3299999168 | $2.38 |
| 05-19 12:56 | Cavaliers vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.7 | $1.75 |
| 05-17 14:40 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals | BUY | 0.4699999191 | $1.22 |
| 05-16 14:50 | Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers | BUY | 0.4799998572 | $1.21 |
| 05-15 13:56 | Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals | BUY | 0.449999904 | $1.64 |
| 05-12 11:20 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.81 | $1.97 |
| 04-04 12:08 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.89 |
| 04-03 13:42 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.8199999393 | $1.89 |
| 03-12 15:35 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.3790068017 | $1.82 |